Valuation Lens — November 6, 2026

Emerging markets, Japan and REITs screen cheapest against modeled current value, while energy, Pacific ex-Japan and metals screen most expensive and U.S. large caps sit above fair value on profit-based aggregates despite a 17.7x forward P/E.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 6, 2026Last market session Nov 6, 2026Data cutoff Nov 6, 2026, 8:57 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.33%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.33% (investment basis) is the annual hurdle, on an upward-sloping curve where 10-year nominal and real yields of 4.86% and 2.63% sit near their highest levels of the past decade.

10y Treasury: 4.9%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.3
Cheap
Median fair value
107.099.0–114.6
Upside to median
+7.0%
1y modeled
+9.5%-16.1% to 32.6%
vs Treasury
+5.2%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.097.5–110.2
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+8.5%-13.3% to 27.7%
vs Treasury
+4.2%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.097.9–109.8
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-16.9% to 29.3%
vs Treasury
+3.2%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.096.2–113.8
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-22.8% to 36.2%
vs Treasury
+3.7%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.698.9–102.2
Upside to median
+0.6%
1y modeled
+5.4%-0.8% to 11.0%
vs Treasury
+1.1%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
101.094.9–106.8
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-12.5% to 25.9%
vs Treasury
+3.7%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
104.085.2–123.8
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-52.7% to 75.5%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
94.587.6–101.0
Upside to median
-5.5%
1y modeled
+7.0%-13.5% to 24.9%
vs Treasury
+2.7%
MetalsGLD
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
90.080.8–98.7
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-20.1% to 24.8%
vs Treasury
-1.3%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
93.087.3–98.7
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-14.7% to 21.2%
vs Treasury
+0.2%
EnergyUSO
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
89.080.9–97.1
Upside to median
-11.0%
1y modeled
+1.0%-40.0% to 39.4%
vs Treasury
-3.3%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-06, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.3 Cheap	107.0 99.0–114.6	+7.0%	+9.5% -16.1% to 32.6%	+5.2%
Japan Equities EWJ	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	104.0 97.5–110.2	+4.0%	+8.5% -13.3% to 27.7%	+4.2%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	104.0 97.9–109.8	+4.0%	+7.5% -16.9% to 29.3%	+3.2%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	105.0 96.2–113.8	+5.0%	+8.0% -22.8% to 36.2%	+3.7%
Fixed Income BND	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	100.6 98.9–102.2	+0.6%	+5.4% -0.8% to 11.0%	+1.1%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.3 Fair	101.0 94.9–106.8	+1.0%	+8.0% -12.5% to 25.9%	+3.7%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	104.0 85.2–123.8	+4.0%	+5.0% -52.7% to 75.5%	+0.7%
US Equities SPY	-1.3 Expensive	94.5 87.6–101.0	-5.5%	+7.0% -13.5% to 24.9%	+2.7%
Metals GLD	-1.7 Expensive	90.0 80.8–98.7	-10.0%	+3.0% -20.1% to 24.8%	-1.3%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.8 Expensive	93.0 87.3–98.7	-7.0%	+4.5% -14.7% to 21.2%	+0.2%
Energy USO	-1.9 Expensive	89.0 80.9–97.1	-11.0%	+1.0% -40.0% to 39.4%	-3.3%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.3Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 27.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 68%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 60%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 32.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 54%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 49%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 80%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 85%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 68%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Sources13

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI EAFE Index
MSCI
3
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
5
MSCI China Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
7
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
8
Fixed income weekly commentary: Fed holds, but Treasuries rally on safety
Nuveen
9
The State of REITs: October 2026 Edition
2nd Market Capital Advisory Corp
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Natural gas (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
12
Gold Market Commentary: Where floor art thou?
World Gold Council
13
How to Read Bitcoin MVRV, NUPL, and Realized Price
Pintu Academy

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation_lens_2026-11-06_v3.4_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.