Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 33.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $88.26
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.7%
- P75
- +18.6%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -13.3%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.4%) plus haircut forward earnings growth plus modest multiple convergence, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 17, upper scale 15 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.8%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Shareholder yield plus normalized earnings growth supported by governance-driven ROE gains, with partial multiple convergence.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +4.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.