Energy
Today’s price sits at the 82.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.0
- Upside to median
- -11.0%
- Last close
- $148.41
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.4%
- P75
- +21.2%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -20.6%
- P10
- -40.0%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Front-month futures exposure: collateral yield and roll return in a backwardated curve offset by an expected spot decline as disrupted supply returns, with a very wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 32, upper scale 30 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +5.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Spot crude converging toward mid-cycle levels as inventories rebuild, partly offset by collateral yield and roll return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -3.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury hurdle exceeds the modeled median.