Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 40.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.6
- Upside to median
- +0.6%
- Last close
- $71.54
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.4%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +2.2%
- P10
- -0.8%
87% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting aggregate yield to worst near 5.2% plus small modeled valuation gain, with duration-scaled yield-change scenarios (lower scale 4.8, upper scale 4.4 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.3%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.0%
Starting yield as the dominant anchor, with reinvestment at modeled yields and duration effects diminishing over the horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the 1-year Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower price uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 100.6 | $71.54 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.23 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.82 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.53 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.60 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.27 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.85 | — |