Metals
Today’s price sits at the 78.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $3,657.20
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.8%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -9.1%
- P10
- -20.1%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; modest price drift from sustained official-sector demand offset by partial convergence toward modeled value under high real yields, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 18, upper scale 17 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Inflation-linked drift in metal prices less gradual convergence toward modeled value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- -1.3%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury hurdle exceeds the modeled median.