Valuation Lens — September 2, 2026

China Leads Value While U.S. Equities Remain Expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 2, 2026Data cutoff Sep 2, 2026, 5:55 PM EDTintraday

The hurdle to beat

4.18%1y Treasury

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.18%, while the 10Y nominal yield is 4.79% and the 10Y real yield is 2.44%.

10y Treasury: 4.8%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesFXI
+1.6
Cheap
Median fair value
118.0110.0–126.0
Upside to median
+18.0%
1y modeled
+11.3%2.9% to 20.9%
vs Treasury
+7.1%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.094.0–116.0
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+11.5%3.1% to 18.5%
vs Treasury
+7.3%
EnergyUSO
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.096.0–116.0
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+9.2%2.2% to 15.5%
vs Treasury
+5.0%
CryptoETH-USD
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
110.090.0–155.0
Upside to median
+10.0%
1y modeled
+11.5%-13.5% to 49.0%
vs Treasury
+7.3%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.0100.0–104.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+5.7%3.6% to 7.4%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.096.0–108.0
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+10.0%5.8% to 13.0%
vs Treasury
+5.8%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.094.0–110.0
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+8.9%4.1% to 13.1%
vs Treasury
+4.7%
MetalsGLD
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.092.0–112.0
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+4.4%-2.6% to 10.7%
vs Treasury
+0.2%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
99.096.0–103.0
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%1.9% to 10.0%
vs Treasury
+2.8%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.090.0–102.0
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+6.3%2.1% to 9.3%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
92.082.0–96.0
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-1.7% to 10.0%
vs Treasury
+1.3%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-02, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities FXI	+1.6 Cheap	118.0 110.0–126.0	+18.0%	+11.3% 2.9% to 20.9%	+7.1%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.2 Somewhat cheap	108.0 94.0–116.0	+8.0%	+11.5% 3.1% to 18.5%	+7.3%
Energy USO	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	108.0 96.0–116.0	+8.0%	+9.2% 2.2% to 15.5%	+5.0%
Crypto ETH-USD	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	110.0 90.0–155.0	+10.0%	+11.5% -13.5% to 49.0%	+7.3%
Fixed Income BND	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	102.0 100.0–104.0	+2.0%	+5.7% 3.6% to 7.4%	+1.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	104.0 96.0–108.0	+4.0%	+10.0% 5.8% to 13.0%	+5.8%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	104.0 94.0–110.0	+4.0%	+8.9% 4.1% to 13.1%	+4.7%
Metals GLD	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	104.0 92.0–112.0	+4.0%	+4.4% -2.6% to 10.7%	+0.2%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	99.0 96.0–103.0	-1.0%	+7.0% 1.9% to 10.0%	+2.8%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	98.0 90.0–102.0	-2.0%	+6.3% 2.1% to 9.3%	+2.1%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	92.0 82.0–96.0	-8.0%	+5.5% -1.7% to 10.0%	+1.3%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

FXI · China Large-Cap

+1.6Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 23.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 87%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.2Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 84%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 32.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 84%Historical base rate: 45%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

ETH-USD · Ethereum

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–280 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 65%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 87%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 95%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 87%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 89%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 75%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 81.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources24

1
FactSet Earnings Insight
FactSet
2
iShares China Large-Cap ETF | FXI
BlackRock / iShares
3
iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJ
BlackRock / iShares
4
iShares MSCI Japan Value ETF | EWJV
BlackRock / iShares
5
iShares MSCI Japan Small-Cap ETF | SCJ
BlackRock / iShares
6
iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWA
BlackRock / iShares
7
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF | EEM
BlackRock / iShares
8
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF | EMXC
BlackRock / iShares
9
iShares MSCI India ETF | INDA
BlackRock / iShares
10
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF | EWZ
BlackRock / iShares
11
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF | EWT
BlackRock / iShares
12
iShares Europe ETF | IEV
BlackRock / iShares
13
iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF | EZU
BlackRock / iShares
14
iShares MSCI Germany ETF | EWG
BlackRock / iShares
15
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF | BND
Vanguard
16
Vanguard Real Estate ETF | VNQ
Vanguard
17
iShares Core U.S. REIT ETF | USRT
BlackRock / iShares
18
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF | XLE
State Street Global Advisors
19
Oil Market Report - August 2026
International Energy Agency
20
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
21
Gold ETF Flows: July 2026
World Gold Council
22
Q3 2026 Signals Report
Fidelity Digital Assets
23
Q4 crypto market outlook
Fidelity
24
BTC MVRV by Wallet Size Chart
Glassnode

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-09-02_valuation-lens_175549-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.