US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 71.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.5
- Upside to median
- -5.5%
- Last close
- $735.29
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.9%
- P75
- +16.4%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -13.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (about 2.3%) plus haircut forward EPS growth near 8% less a valuation drag of about 2.5% as the multiple drifts toward modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 16, upper scale 14 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield plus normalized EPS growth with partial margin and multiple normalization over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and Treasuries offer a competitive yield with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $512.22 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $273.67 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $656.54 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.05 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $463.61 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.3Expensive | 94.5 | $735.29 | +7.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.16 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $162.67 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.80 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $117.58 | — |