Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 32.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $95.73
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.3%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -5.3%
- P10
- -16.9%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield (about 4%) plus AFFO growth near 3% plus partial NAV-discount convergence, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 19, upper scale 17 percentage points) reflecting rate sensitivity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Distribution yield plus AFFO growth plus gradual convergence toward modeled value, with refinancing at higher rates as a drag.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $26.95 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.20 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $94.87 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $27.92 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $95.73 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.00 | — |