Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.0
- Upside to median
- -7.0%
- Last close
- $29.17
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.2%
- P75
- +13.3%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.6%
- P10
- -14.7%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.5%) plus forward earnings growth near 4% less a valuation drag of about 3% toward modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 15, upper scale 13 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Dividend yield plus low-to-mid single-digit earnings growth less gradual multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +0.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the Treasury offers nearly the same expected return with far less uncertainty.