China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.0
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- Last close
- $51.96
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
62/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +36.2%
- P75
- +22.8%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -8.2%
- P10
- -22.8%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.6%) plus modest earnings growth plus partial multiple convergence, with a wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 24, upper scale 22 percentage points) for policy and geopolitical risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Dividend yield plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus gradual convergence toward modeled value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.60 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.50 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.87 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.19 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.32 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.95 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.88 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $51.96 | +8.0% |