Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 44.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $42.88
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +75.5%
- P75
- +42.1%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -25.4%
- P10
- -52.7%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence toward the median of on-chain cost-basis anchors with no cash yield, using a very wide two-piece return distribution (lower scale 45, upper scale 55 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the edge is negligible relative to the very wide return range.