Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.0
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- Last close
- $55.29
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.6%
- P75
- +21.6%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.1%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.2%) plus haircut forward earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median modeled value, with a two-piece return distribution wider on the downside (lower scale 20, upper scale 18 percentage points).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Dividend yield plus normalized earnings growth after the current earnings surge plus gradual convergence of the multiple toward modeled value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +5.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $85.35 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $89.24 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $137.01 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $31.98 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $67.06 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $50.89 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.3Cheap | 107.0 | $55.29 | +9.5% |