Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $87.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
69/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.9%
- P75
- +17.4%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.8%
- P10
- -12.5%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.6%) plus haircut forward earnings growth with no assumed multiple change, with a two-piece return distribution (lower scale 16, upper scale 14 percentage points); U.S.-dollar basis.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- -2.0%
Shareholder yield plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with the multiple held near modeled value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments