Valuation Lens — October 12, 2026
Emerging-market and Chinese equities carry the widest modelled discounts to economic value, investment-grade bonds now pay a 5.47% yield to maturity, and crude-linked energy, US large-cap and developed-Pacific equities sit above their modelled value ranges while the one-year Treasury pays 4.47%.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
Cash-like Treasury exposure pays 4.47% for one year on an investment basis while the 10-year real yield of 2.91% sits in the top percentile of the past twenty years, so every long-duration asset is being discounted at an unusually high real rate.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.2%
- 10y real
- 2.9%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 110.197.3–120.7
- Upside to median
- +10.1%
- 1y modeled
- +10.5%-14.0% to 32.0%
- vs Treasury
- +6.0%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.199.6–103.2
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-2.5% to 12.5%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.795.6–105.6
- Upside to median
- +1.7%
- 1y modeled
- +8.5%-12.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.0%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.993.7–114.6
- Upside to median
- +5.9%
- 1y modeled
- +9.5%-22.0% to 40.0%
- vs Treasury
- +5.0%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.089.9–108.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-52.0% to 85.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- -0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.893.0–105.6
- Upside to median
- -1.2%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-14.0% to 27.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.8Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.991.2–103.0
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-14.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- MetalsGLD-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.685.9–102.5
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-20.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.5%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.083.3–99.5
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-14.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.5%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.190.4–99.2
- Upside to median
- -7.9%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-11.0% to 21.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- EnergyUSO-2.2Expensive
- Median fair value
- 86.982.0–95.8
- Upside to median
- -13.1%
- 1y modeled
- -4.0%-34.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- -8.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 29.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 7% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources16
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4MSCI USA IndexMSCI
- 5
- 6MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 7
- 8
- 9MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 10
- 11
- 12Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 13Gold Market Commentary: Go with the flowWorld Gold Council
- 14
- 15
- 16
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw_valuation_lens_2026-10-12
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.