Metals
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.6
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- Last close
- $382.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
These assets generate no cash flow, so the modelled return is the expected change in the real price plus the modelled valuation gap spread over several years, less the implied carrying cost of holding a non-yielding asset against a 2.91% real risk-free rate. Quantiles reflect the realized dispersion of precious-metal returns including the 8.5% single-month decline recorded in September.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year drift of the real price toward the demand-adjusted anchor near 4,000 dollars an ounce, with the persistent silver deficit and mining free cash flow as offsetting supports and no income contribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The modelled median return sits below the 4.47% one-year Treasury, so on this analysis cash-like Treasury exposure offers a higher expected return with far lower uncertainty.