Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 29.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 110.1
- Upside to median
- +10.1%
- Last close
- $59.73
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +10.5%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
74% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 2.02% plus a sustainable earnings growth contribution shrunk well below the 53% growth implied by the gap between trailing and forward multiples, plus one fifth of the modelled valuation gap as slow convergence. Quantiles reflect the historically wide dispersion of emerging-market returns and unhedged currency exposure.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- +5.5%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year compounding of dividend yield, mid-cycle earnings growth and partial convergence of the forward multiple toward the 10.5x to 12.0x range, discounted at a 10.5% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +6.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The comparison is a proxy because the benchmark is an unhedged dollar-denominated fund while the hurdle is a domestic nominal instrument.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +1.3Cheap | 110.1 | $59.73 | +10.5% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $98.05 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $114.27 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $170.11 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $43.54 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.77 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.36 | — |