Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.1
- Upside to median
- -7.9%
- Last close
- $28.67
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
72% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 3.49% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 4% to 5%, which is the slowest among the developed markets covered here, less a drag from the modelled valuation gap. Quantiles are narrower than for other equity markets because the return is more income-weighted.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -0.5%
Three-year compounding of the 3.49% dividend yield, 5% earnings growth and partial de-rating of the forward multiple from 17.14x toward 16.0x, discounted at a 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. An edge of about two points for full equity risk in a slow-growth, financials-heavy market is the thinnest risk compensation of any equity asset class here.