Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.8
- Upside to median
- -1.2%
- Last close
- $97.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 1.84% plus sustainable earnings growth supported by continuing improvement in returns on equity and payout ratios, less a small drag from the modelled valuation gap. Quantiles reflect the historical dispersion of unhedged dollar returns on Japanese equity, which adds currency variance to the equity variance.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +4.5%
- P10
- +0.5%
Three-year compounding of the 1.84% dividend yield, 8% earnings growth and a terminal forward multiple held near 15.0x, discounted at a 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +3.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The comparison is a proxy because the benchmark is unhedged dollar-denominated Japanese equity measured against a domestic nominal hurdle.