Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.7
- Upside to median
- +1.7%
- Last close
- $85.82
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +8.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -12.0%
71% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 2.87% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 5% to 6% plus a small positive contribution from slow convergence toward the modelled median, with quantiles set from the historical dispersion of unhedged dollar returns on developed European equity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +5.0%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year compounding of the 2.87% dividend yield, 7% earnings growth and a terminal forward multiple held near 14.0x, discounted at a 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +4.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The comparison is a proxy because the benchmark is unhedged dollar-denominated European equity measured against a domestic nominal hurdle.