US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 77.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $778.10
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 1.11% plus sustainable earnings growth of about 9%, well below the 32.4% consensus growth for 2026, less roughly three points of annual drag from slow convergence of the modelled valuation gap. Quantiles reflect realized large-cap return dispersion with a modest left skew for index concentration.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- 0.0%
Three-year compounding of the 1.11% dividend yield, 10% earnings growth and partial de-rating of the forward multiple from 19.1x toward 17.5x, discounted at a 9.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. An edge of about 2.5 points is thin compensation for full equity risk at a point where aggregate corporate earnings offer their lowest recorded premium over the real risk-free rate.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 96.0 | $778.10 | +7.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $517.91 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $213.19 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.90 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $746.04 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $590.99 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.05 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.15 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $171.99 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.27 | — |