Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 36.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.1
- Upside to median
- +1.1%
- Last close
- $70.25
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.5%
81% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity of 5.47% as the carry anchor, less a small allowance for tight credit spreads, with the quantiles generated by applying a plausible one-year range of yield changes to an average duration of 5.7 years including convexity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.4%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +4.4%
- P10
- +3.0%
Starting yield to maturity dominates over a horizon close to half the average effective maturity of 8.2 years, with reinvestment at forward rates and a narrow band for terminal-yield outcomes.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is small and comes with roughly 5.7 years of interest-rate duration, so the one-year Treasury offers a competitive return with materially lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 101.1 | $70.25 | +5.4% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.17 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $89.43 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $78.05 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.58 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.29 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.50 | — |