Energy
Today’s price sits at the 86.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 7% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 86.9
- Upside to median
- -13.1%
- Last close
- $151.03
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -18.0%
- P10
- -34.0%
44% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blends a commodity component whose central path follows the published official forecast of Brent falling from 105 dollars in the fourth quarter to an 84 dollar average in 2027, partly offset by carry from a backwardated curve, with a producer-equity component whose earnings consensus itself turns negative from the second quarter of 2027. Quantiles reflect the very wide realized dispersion of crude returns and the live risk of further supply disruption.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
Three-year path from today's forward-implied price toward a mid-cycle level near 85 dollars a barrel, with curve carry and producer shareholder returns as offsets and no assumption that the current disruption premium persists.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -8.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The modelled median return is negative and roughly 8.5 points below the one-year Treasury, so on this analysis risk-taking in this asset class is not currently rewarded against cash.