Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 48.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $46.86
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +85.0%
- P75
- +45.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -27.0%
- P10
- -52.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flow or carry exists, so the modelled return is the expected change in the valuation ratio from its last published level toward the middle of its historical normal band, with quantiles set from the realized dispersion of this asset class across prior cycles. The median is close to zero excess over the hurdle and the range is deliberately very wide.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
Three-year compounding of a slow drift in the valuation ratio toward the middle of its historical band, with supply growth below 1% a year as the only mechanical support and no assumption of a new cycle peak.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The modelled one-year range spans roughly minus 52% to plus 85%, so the one-year Treasury offers a competitive expected return with vastly lower uncertainty.