Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.9
- Upside to median
- -1.1%
- Last close
- $91.36
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield of 3.90% plus funds-from-operations growth shrunk well below the 14.8% most recent year-over-year rate toward a sustainable mid-single-digit pace, less a drag from the modelled valuation gap. Quantiles reflect the rate sensitivity created by roughly 32% leverage on property assets.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- 0.0%
Three-year compounding of the 3.90% distribution yield plus sustainable same-store net-operating-income growth near 3% to 4%, with partial normalization of the capitalization-rate spread toward 100 to 115 basis points.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +3.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is earned by accepting levered property risk at a capitalization-rate spread roughly one point narrower than the post-2021 average.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 98.9 | $91.36 | +7.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $41.92 | — |
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.84 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $88.43 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.99 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.38 | — |