China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 105.9
- Upside to median
- +5.9%
- Last close
- $52.15
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +40.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +9.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of 2.43% plus mid-cycle earnings growth plus a modest contribution from slow convergence toward the modelled median. Quantiles are deliberately the widest of any equity universe here to reflect the historical volatility of policy-driven re-ratings in this market.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +9.0%
- P25
- +4.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year compounding of the 2.43% dividend yield, 8% earnings growth and a terminal forward multiple near 10.5x, discounted at an 11.0% required return.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +5.0%
- Basis
- proxy
A modelled annual spread over the one-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return. The modelled range around this edge is the widest of any equity asset class in this report, so the edge should not be read as reliable compensation.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 105.9 | $52.15 | +9.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.14 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.96 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.17 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.75 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $42.98 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.03 | — |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.42 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.99 | — |