Valuation Lens — October 6, 2026
A 5.26% ten-year Treasury yield sets a high bar for every cash-flow asset: Chinese equities carry the only clearly positive modelled fair-value gap, broad U.S. bonds sit closest to fair value, and U.S., emerging-market and developed-Pacific equities price at the widest premium to modelled economic value.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
A 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield and a 5.26% ten-year yield, with a 2.91% ten-year real yield and 2.35% ten-year breakeven, put the risk-free hurdle near its highest level in two decades.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.3%
- 10y real
- 2.9%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +0.6Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.390.2–114.1
- Upside to median
- +2.3%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-26.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.9%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.499.0–102.3
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-2.0% to 12.5%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.188.8–105.3
- Upside to median
- -0.9%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-17.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- MetalsGLD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 97.884.6–104.9
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-22.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.6%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 96.876.7–112.8
- Upside to median
- -3.2%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-48.0% to 75.0%
- vs Treasury
- -0.6%
- -0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.987.9–107.5
- Upside to median
- -6.1%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-16.0% to 23.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- -0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 97.490.2–107.0
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-14.0% to 23.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- EnergyXLE-0.7Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.883.8–104.2
- Upside to median
- -10.2%
- 1y modeled
- +2.5%-26.0% to 28.0%
- vs Treasury
- -2.1%
- -1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.186.8–102.0
- Upside to median
- -9.9%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-15.0% to 18.5%
- vs Treasury
- -0.1%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.887.4–100.3
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-16.0% to 24.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- -1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 91.481.2–104.3
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-22.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 39.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 61.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources16
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10
- 11
- 12Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 13Gold Demand Trends, Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 14
- 15Platinum Quarterly Q2 2026 press releaseWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 16
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- vl-2026-10-06-001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.