Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 60.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.9
- Upside to median
- -6.1%
- Last close
- $99.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -16.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining a 3.66% distribution yield plus roughly two percentage points of buyback accretion, mid-single-digit earnings growth and a modest multiple drag, with dispersion widened for dollar-yen translation risk on a dollar-denominated benchmark.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Three-year earnings and shareholder-distribution path with partial multiple convergence toward the modelled fair-value median, net of an allowance for domestic policy-rate normalisation.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 1.42 percentage points; the 3.66% distribution yield covers most but not all of the cash hurdle on its own, and the comparison is before currency translation effects.