Metals
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.8
- Upside to median
- -2.2%
- Last close
- $382.27
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected return is modelled as the change in the real metal price, from the distribution of required real yields and physical balances, plus realised inflation; these holdings generate no cash flow, so there is no carry component and storage costs are a small drag.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -8.0%
Three-year real-price path anchored on partial convergence of the real-yield relationship toward its post-2022 regime, plus breakeven inflation, with wider bands for the industrial-metal and mining-equity components.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return sits 1.58 percentage points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield; a non-yielding store of value has to appreciate just to match cash when the risk-free rate is this high.