Energy
Today’s price sits at the 61.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.8
- Upside to median
- -10.2%
- Last close
- $63.75
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining a roughly 6% sector dividend and buyback yield, an earnings decline consistent with the official crude-oil forecast falling from a 96 to an 84 dollar annual average, and a small multiple drag; dispersion is wide because commodity prices dominate the outcome.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
Three-year path reverting toward a mid-cycle marginal-cost oil deck with capital discipline maintained, so shareholder distributions carry most of the return and reserve terminal value carries the risk.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -2.1%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return sits 2.08 percentage points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield because the official crude-oil forecast implies a falling revenue deck; the sector's high current distribution yield does not offset that on these estimates.