Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 51.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.1
- Upside to median
- -0.9%
- Last close
- $89.93
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.38% distribution yield plus mid-single-digit adjusted cash-flow growth, with a distribution of one-year cap-rate changes driven by the modelled range of required spreads over the ten-year Treasury.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year distribution and cash-flow growth path with partial cap-rate convergence toward the modelled required spread, net of a debt-cost reset drag on refinanced maturities.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 1.92 percentage points, but the 3.38% current distribution yield alone falls short of cash, so the edge depends entirely on cash-flow growth and cap-rate stability.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $25.74 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.69 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $87.66 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $29.02 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 99.1 | $89.93 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.1Fair | 99.1 | $41.10 | +6.5% |