US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.8
- Upside to median
- -7.2%
- Last close
- $779.09
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into realised earnings growth shaded below the consensus forward path, a 1.06% dividend yield, buyback accretion already inside earnings per share, and a modest multiple drag as the forward multiple drifts toward the level implied by a 5.26% ten-year Treasury yield.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year earnings and free-cash-flow path at mid-single-digit growth after the current ramp, with partial multiple normalisation toward a 17x terminal forward multiple and shareholder distributions added, discounted at the ten-year yield plus a three-percentage-point equity risk premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 0.92 percentage points, a narrow modelled edge for equity risk; a one-year Treasury delivers a comparable central return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $514.56 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $281.34 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $759.66 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $212.33 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $632.50 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 92.8 | $779.09 | +5.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $54.01 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $171.58 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.09 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $111.72 | — |