Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.8
- Upside to median
- -3.2%
- Last close
- $48.49
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +75.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected return is modelled purely as price change, since the asset generates no contractual cash flow: the scenario set combines adoption-driven demand growth, roughly 0.8% annual issuance dilution and the drag from a 4.58% risk-free alternative, with an intentionally very wide dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +24.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -28.0%
Three-year path combining continued institutional-access adoption, post-halving issuance of roughly 0.8% a year and partial convergence toward the modelled fair-value median, with dispersion reflecting the absence of a cash-flow anchor.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return sits 0.58 percentage points below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield, while the return dispersion is by far the widest in this universe; on these estimates cash offers a comparable central return with vastly lower uncertainty.