Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 61.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.4
- Upside to median
- -2.6%
- Last close
- $86.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining a 2.59% distribution yield plus roughly 1.2 percentage points of buyback accretion, mid-single-digit earnings growth led by financials and industrials, and a modest multiple drag.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with partial multiple convergence toward the modelled fair-value median and an allowance for the fiscal and defence capital-expenditure cycle.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 1.92 percentage points; the comparison uses the dollar risk-free rate against a dollar-denominated European benchmark, so it embeds currency translation.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWG Germany Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.49 | — |
| EWL Switzerland Index | —Unavailable | — | $59.29 | — |
| EWQ France Index | —Unavailable | — | $41.81 | — |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.37 | — |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 97.4 | $67.00 | +6.5% |
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 97.4 | $86.58 | +6.5% |