Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.4
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- Last close
- $70.02
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
83% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting 5.52% average yield to maturity plus roll-down, with a distribution of one-year yield and spread changes applied through a 5.68-year effective duration and a 0.30 convexity allowance.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.2%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.0%
Starting yield to maturity dominates at a three-year horizon as price effects partly reverse through pull-to-par; the dispersion reflects terminal-yield uncertainty and a modest credit-spread normalisation allowance.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
A 5.52% starting yield to maturity against the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield gives a modelled 0.92-percentage-point annual edge for taking 5.68 years of duration; that edge is a modelled spread and reverses if yields rise more than about 17 basis points over the year.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.2Fair | 100.4 | $70.02 | +5.5% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.27 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $89.13 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.14 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.13 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.18 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $77.28 | — |