Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.1
- Upside to median
- -9.9%
- Last close
- $28.55
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +18.5%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining a roughly 3.9% standardised yield, low-single-digit earnings growth for a bank-and-miner-weighted market and a modest multiple drag from the elevated starting price-to-book.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Three-year dividend and earnings path with partial price-to-book convergence toward the modelled fair-value median and an allowance for commodity-cycle variability in the resource cohort.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -0.1%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return of 4.5% sits fractionally below the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield, so on these estimates an investor is not being paid to take equity risk here relative to cash.