China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 39.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.3
- Upside to median
- +2.3%
- Last close
- $52.22
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return decomposed into a 7.56% trailing earnings yield, mid-single-digit sustainable earnings growth, a 1.99% distribution yield and a modest valuation-convergence term, with the dispersion widened for policy, governance and investability risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with partial convergence toward the modelled fair-value median, discounted at a required return that embeds a three-percentage-point governance and country risk premium over the long Treasury yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 2.92 percentage points; this is a modelled spread on a dollar-denominated proxy, not a guaranteed excess return, and the wide return dispersion means the edge is far from assured.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.58 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.07 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.65 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.77 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $45.03 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.62 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 102.3 | $33.77 | +7.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.54 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 102.3 | $52.22 | +7.5% |