Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.4
- Upside to median
- -8.6%
- Last close
- $60.62
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -22.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total return combining a 2.19% distribution yield, high-single-digit to low-double-digit earnings growth led by the semiconductor cohort and a multiple drag from the elevated starting price-to-book, with dispersion widened for currency and dollar-funding risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with partial price-to-book convergence toward the modelled fair-value median and an explicit allowance for semiconductor-cycle earnings normalisation.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- proxy
The modelled one-year median return exceeds the 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield by 1.92 percentage points, but the dispersion is among the widest here and the comparison embeds currency translation on a dollar-denominated benchmark.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $101.89 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $117.61 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $186.40 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $43.00 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.66 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.73 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 91.4 | $60.62 | +6.5% |