Valuation Lens — October 2, 2026

With the one-year Treasury par yield at 4.58% and the 10-year real yield at 2.91% near the top of its ten-year range, US large-cap and Developed Pacific equities screen expensive against today-equivalent fair value while broad bonds, Europe and China sit at or modestly below it.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 2, 2026Last market session Oct 2, 2026Data cutoff Oct 2, 2026, 11:35 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.58%1y Treasury

A 4.58% one-year Treasury par yield alongside a 10-year real yield of 2.91% at the top of its ten-year range sets an unusually high opportunity cost against every risk asset in this report.

10y Treasury: 5.3%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.099.0–105.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-2.0% to 12.5%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
101.095.0–108.0
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-15.0% to 24.5%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
102.091.0–115.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-27.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+3.4%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.088.0–123.0
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-48.0% to 78.0%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.093.0–106.0
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-16.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.091.0–106.0
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-15.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.090.0–105.0
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-21.0% to 29.5%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
MetalsGLD
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.089.0–104.0
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-19.5% to 24.5%
vs Treasury
-1.6%
EnergyXLE
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
90.082.0–100.0
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-24.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
-1.6%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
90.082.5–97.5
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-17.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
88.082.0–96.0
Upside to median
-12.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-17.0% to 20.5%
vs Treasury
-0.6%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-02, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	102.0 99.0–105.0	+2.0%	+5.5% -2.0% to 12.5%	+0.9%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.3 Fair	101.0 95.0–108.0	+1.0%	+7.0% -15.0% to 24.5%	+2.4%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.3 Fair	102.0 91.0–115.0	+2.0%	+8.0% -27.0% to 38.0%	+3.4%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	103.0 88.0–123.0	+3.0%	+6.0% -48.0% to 78.0%	+1.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.2 Fair	99.0 93.0–106.0	-1.0%	+7.5% -16.0% to 26.0%	+2.9%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	98.0 91.0–106.0	-2.0%	+6.0% -15.0% to 22.0%	+1.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	97.0 90.0–105.0	-3.0%	+7.0% -21.0% to 29.5%	+2.4%
Metals GLD	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	96.0 89.0–104.0	-4.0%	+3.0% -19.5% to 24.5%	-1.6%
Energy XLE	-1.5 Expensive	90.0 82.0–100.0	-10.0%	+3.0% -24.0% to 31.0%	-1.6%
US Equities SPY	-1.8 Expensive	90.0 82.5–97.5	-10.0%	+5.5% -17.0% to 24.0%	+0.9%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.0 Expensive	88.0 82.0–96.0	-12.0%	+4.0% -17.0% to 20.5%	-0.6%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 80%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 50%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 56.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 53%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 67%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 62.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 46%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

XLE · US Energy Sector

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 85%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources14

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet Research Systems
2
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), ICE Data Indices
3
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), ICE Data Indices
4
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — fund characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
5
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council
6
Short-Term Energy Outlook (September 2026 release)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
7
EIA forecasts lower oil prices in 2026 and 2027 due to persistent stock builds
U.S. Energy Information Administration
8
Dual Divergences Signal REIT Growth Opportunities in 2026
Nareit
9
Global Silver Investment to Remain Strong in 2026 Against the Backdrop of a Sixth Consecutive Annual Market Deficit
The Silver Institute
10
Australian equities: recent underperformance
LGT Wealth Management Australia
11
Europe P/E (Price-Earnings) Ratio & Earnings Growth
Siblis Research
12
Investment Idea: Compelling Valuations in Japan
Hennessy Funds
13
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata
14
Emerging Markets Stocks: current P/E Ratio
worldperatio.com

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw_vl_20261002_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.