Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 88.0
- Upside to median
- -12.0%
- Last close
- $28.32
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +20.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -17.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth near 5%, the 3.6% forward dividend yield, and a negative valuation-change term of roughly 4% reflecting partial drift toward the modeled justified multiple; dispersion widened for currency and for the unmodeled Singapore and New Zealand weights.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.5%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year earnings and dividend path with the dividend-yield normalization spread across the horizon rather than concentrated in year one; no full mean reversion assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return sits 0.58pp below the 1-year Treasury par yield, so on this model the Treasury offers a comparable-to-better expected return with materially lower uncertainty and no currency risk.