Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $47.73
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +78.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value of 103 with no cash-flow component, applied over an extremely wide, right-skewed dispersion calibrated to the asset's realized return distribution rather than to any valuation anchor.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +42.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Three-year annualized path allowing a full cycle of the market-to-realized ratio, with issuance dilution near 0.8% annually subtracted and no cash-flow yield added.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
A 1.42pp modeled median edge sits inside a P10 to P90 return range of roughly 126 percentage points, so the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with vastly lower uncertainty.