Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.0
- Upside to median
- -3.0%
- Last close
- $59.56
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.5%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -21.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth near 10% reflecting the emerging-market growth differential, a dividend yield near 2.6%, and a negative valuation-change term from the modeled median fair value of 97; dispersion widened for currency and semiconductor-cycle variance.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Three-year earnings and dividend path with partial convergence of the estimated multiple toward its twenty-year mean of 13.09x; no full mean reversion assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the emerging-market return is measured in US dollars and carries currency risk the Treasury hurdle does not.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $59.56 | +7.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $101.29 | +6.3% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $116.33 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $191.88 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $46.52 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $38.19 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $63.19 | — |