Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $86.38
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -15.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Decomposition into sustainable earnings growth near 7%, a combined dividend and buyback distribution near 4.7%, and a small negative valuation-change term reflecting the modeled median fair value of 101, with a dispersion calibrated to European index volatility in US-dollar terms.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.2%
- P75
- +10.2%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- +3.2%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with partial convergence toward the modeled justified multiple; the valuation-change term is close to zero because the median fair value sits near the market price.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the European return is measured in US dollars and carries currency risk the Treasury hurdle does not.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | +0.3Fair | 101.0 | $86.38 | +7.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | +0.3Fair | 101.0 | $67.03 | +7.0% |
| EWG Germany Index | +0.3Fair | 101.0 | $41.30 | +7.0% |
| EWQ France Index | +0.3Fair | 101.0 | $42.23 | +7.0% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +0.3Fair | 101.0 | $46.18 | +7.0% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $59.23 | +4.0% |