Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $62.82
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
56% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended across the class: producer equities contribute a high shareholder yield offset by an earnings base priced on a declining strip, while the commodity vehicles contribute negative expected roll and a forward curve pointing below spot.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.5%
- P10
- -9.0%
Three-year path in which the price converges toward a mid-cycle level and producer shareholder returns continue to be paid; the longer horizon allows the structural-underinvestment family more weight than at one year.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return sits 1.58pp below the 1-year Treasury par yield, so on this model the Treasury offers a higher expected return with far lower uncertainty than the asset class.