US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $769.64
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +15.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -17.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Sustainable earnings growth near 8% after haircutting consensus, a combined dividend and buyback yield near 2.3%, and a negative valuation-change term of roughly 4% reflecting partial drift toward the modeled justified multiple. The 85.32% upstream historical base rate was explicitly not used to set this median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.5%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Explicit three-year earnings path decelerating from the exceptional 2026 growth rate, shareholder yield near 2.3% annually, and a terminal multiple between 16x and 19x; the valuation drag is spread across three years rather than concentrated in year one.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled median edge of 0.92pp over the 1-year Treasury par yield sits inside a P10 to P90 return range of 41 percentage points, so the Treasury offers a broadly comparable expected return with materially lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 90.0 | $769.64 | +5.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $209.73 | +7.8% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $511.10 | +6.8% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.3Expensive | 92.0 | $281.52 | +6.2% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $749.58 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $630.60 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $53.49 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.95 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $166.18 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $110.04 | — |