Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $98.92
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth near 8% supported by rising return on equity, a combined dividend and buyback distribution near 3.5%, and a slightly negative valuation-change term; dispersion widened for unhedged yen exposure in a US-dollar vehicle.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- -1.0%
Three-year earnings and distribution path with partial price-to-book expansion as capital-efficiency reform raises payout and return on equity; no full mean reversion assumed.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the unhedged yen exposure in EWJ is a material source of the dispersion around this median.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $98.92 | +7.5% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $104.82 | +7.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $182.03 | +8.8% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $48.48 | +9.5% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 107.0 | $110.15 | +10.2% |