Metals
Today’s price sits at the 62.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $380.14
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -6.5%
- P10
- -19.5%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value of 96 plus structural official-sector and investment demand, with no cash-flow component for the physical metals; the mining sleeves add operating leverage to the dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +3.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -7.5%
Three-year path allowing the real-yield regime to normalize partway from its 100th-percentile level, with continued official-sector accumulation and no cash-flow yield added for the physical metals.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled median return sits 1.58pp below the 1-year Treasury par yield, so on this model the Treasury offers both a higher expected return and far lower uncertainty than the asset class.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $380.14 | +3.0% |
| SLV Silver | +0.2Fair | 102.0 | $54.74 | +5.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 94.0 | $87.78 | +2.3% |
| PPLT Platinum | —Unavailable | — | $15.43 | — |
| CPER Copper | —Unavailable | — | $39.52 | — |
| DBB Base Metals | —Unavailable | — | $24.89 | — |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | —Unavailable | — | $60.50 | — |