Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $69.94
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.8%
- P10
- -2.0%
82% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting modeled portfolio yield to maturity of approximately 5.1% plus curve roll-down, less a weighted distribution of yield and spread changes applied through 5.7-year duration and convexity.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.2%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +3.5%
- P10
- +1.5%
Starting yield compounded over three years with partial convergence of the nominal and real curve toward the modeled justified level; carry dominates price change at this horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the one-year bill at 4.37% is a discount-basis reference and is not a holding-period CAGR.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.0Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $69.94 | +5.5% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $89.05 | +5.5% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.1Fair | 100.0 | $81.05 | +4.8% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $77.48 | +6.2% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +1.3Cheap | 105.0 | $104.11 | +6.5% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $101.83 | +4.5% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $76.91 | +3.5% |