Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 56.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $89.50
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Distribution yield near 4.0% plus funds-from-operations growth near 4% consistent with 2.8% same-store net operating income growth, less a small negative valuation-change term from the modeled median fair value of 98.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -2.0%
Three-year distribution and funds-from-operations growth path with partial closure of the public-private capitalization-rate spread; the refinancing burden is spread across the horizon rather than concentrated in year one.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the modeled funds-from-operations yield is only 1.58pp above the 10-year Treasury, which is historically thin.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $89.50 | +6.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 100.0 | $25.64 | +6.7% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $40.81 | +5.7% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $87.70 | +6.3% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.28 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $17.76 | — |