China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $51.24
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +23.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -27.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Earnings growth near 11% on a recovering base, a 1.99% trailing distribution yield, and a broadly flat valuation-change term; dispersion widened well beyond developed-market equity ranges to reflect policy and geopolitical variance.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -9.0%
Three-year earnings path with decaying growth, the current distribution yield, and partial convergence toward the modeled justified multiple; the risk-premium assumption dominates the result.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.58%
- Modeled excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- direct
A modeled spread over the 1-year Treasury par yield, not a guaranteed excess return; the modeled dispersion around this median is the widest of any equity asset class in this report.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.3Fair | 102.0 | $51.24 | +8.0% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $33.19 | +8.3% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.3Fair | 102.0 | $21.57 | +8.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +0.3Fair | 102.0 | $25.26 | +8.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $32.51 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.86 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $43.97 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.55 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.17 | — |