Valuation Lens — September 30, 2026

Market price sits above modelled economic value in US equities, Developed Pacific, metals and energy, while China, emerging markets and investment-grade bonds screen below it; with the 1-year Treasury at 4.58% the cash hurdle is high for every asset class.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 30, 2026Last market session Sep 30, 2026Data cutoff Sep 30, 2026, 11:12 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.58%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.58% and a 10-year real yield of 2.91% at the top of its twenty-year range set an unusually high opportunity cost against which every risk asset must be valued.

10y Treasury: 5.3%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+2.1
Cheap
Median fair value
115.9105.7–128.0
Upside to median
+15.9%
1y modeled
+9.0%-26.0% to 40.0%
vs Treasury
+4.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.6
Cheap
Median fair value
109.0100.5–118.1
Upside to median
+9.0%
1y modeled
+11.0%-20.0% to 36.0%
vs Treasury
+6.4%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.797.5–103.1
Upside to median
+0.7%
1y modeled
+5.3%-1.5% to 11.8%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
101.294.4–107.6
Upside to median
+1.2%
1y modeled
+7.5%-14.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
101.182.7–122.7
Upside to median
+1.1%
1y modeled
+4.0%-48.0% to 78.0%
vs Treasury
-0.6%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.189.8–107.4
Upside to median
-1.9%
1y modeled
+6.5%-12.0% to 20.5%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.889.4–102.6
Upside to median
-4.2%
1y modeled
+5.5%-17.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
EnergyUSO
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
90.778.5–105.1
Upside to median
-9.3%
1y modeled
-9.0%-38.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-13.6%
MetalsGLD
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
88.978.7–101.0
Upside to median
-11.1%
1y modeled
+1.0%-24.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-3.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
92.886.4–99.6
Upside to median
-7.2%
1y modeled
+4.5%-15.0% to 19.5%
vs Treasury
-0.1%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
87.978.6–96.3
Upside to median
-12.1%
1y modeled
+4.5%-18.0% to 23.5%
vs Treasury
-0.1%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-30, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+2.1 Cheap	115.9 105.7–128.0	+15.9%	+9.0% -26.0% to 40.0%	+4.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.6 Cheap	109.0 100.5–118.1	+9.0%	+11.0% -20.0% to 36.0%	+6.4%
Fixed Income BND	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	100.7 97.5–103.1	+0.7%	+5.3% -1.5% to 11.8%	+0.7%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.3 Fair	101.2 94.4–107.6	+1.2%	+7.5% -14.0% to 24.0%	+2.9%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.1 Fair	101.1 82.7–122.7	+1.1%	+4.0% -48.0% to 78.0%	-0.6%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	98.1 89.8–107.4	-1.9%	+6.5% -12.0% to 20.5%	+1.9%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	95.8 89.4–102.6	-4.2%	+5.5% -17.0% to 23.0%	+0.9%
Energy USO	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	90.7 78.5–105.1	-9.3%	-9.0% -38.0% to 28.0%	-13.6%
Metals GLD	-1.4 Expensive	88.9 78.7–101.0	-11.1%	+1.0% -24.0% to 24.0%	-3.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.6 Expensive	92.8 86.4–99.6	-7.2%	+4.5% -15.0% to 19.5%	-0.1%
US Equities SPY	-2.0 Expensive	87.9 78.6–96.3	-12.1%	+4.5% -18.0% to 23.5%	-0.1%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+2.1Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 14.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 86% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.6Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 23.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 76% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 67%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 80%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 48.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 55.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 44% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 53%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 66.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 69%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 31%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 73.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 83.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 16% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 85%

Sources12

1
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) — Fund and Index Characteristics
State Street Global Advisors
2
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Portfolio Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
3
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) — Portfolio Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
4
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) — Portfolio Characteristics
BlackRock / iShares
5
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Portfolio Fundamentals and Credit Quality
The Vanguard Group
6
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) — Portfolio Fundamentals
The Vanguard Group
7
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) — Portfolio Fundamentals
The Vanguard Group
8
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) — Portfolio Fundamentals
The Vanguard Group
9
Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
10
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
11
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
12
Current price of Bitcoin for Sept. 30, 2026
Fortune

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl_20260930_cxpw_v340_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.